South African petrol price: where it is heading and why

Who gets what from R30.25

The official price structure for Gauteng 95 from 7 October 2026, grouped by who receives the money.

How it compares internationally

Pump prices converted to US dollars at the same week's exchange rate. South Africa's US$1.81 a litre sits below Germany and the EU average but above California and the US average. Taxes explain the gap with Europe. Before tax, though, a litre costs more in South Africa ($1.42) than in Germany ($1.12) and the EU average ($1.20): the South African figure includes inland transport to Gauteng, regulated retail and wholesale margins and the slate levy. Germany adds an energy tax, a CO₂ price and 19% VAT, while South African petrol carries no VAT. US "regular" is about 91 octane against South Africa's 95, and US taxes are not split out in the weekly data.

Where the price is heading

The most likely path for each of the next 12 monthly adjustments, with the range of outcomes. The darker band holds the price half the time; the lighter band 8 times in 10. The bands widen quickly because oil prices are volatile, and in back-tests they have held the actual price about as often as they claim (see accuracy below). They cannot anticipate policy changes such as levy relief.

The next adjustment

CEF's daily reports to 6 October 2026 cover 3 of about 20 trading days in the review window for the 4 November 2026 adjustment. If nothing changes from here, the most likely outcome is an increase of R1.26/L to R31.51: +R0.86 from fuel costs and +R0.35 from the slate levy (the fund deficit is about R14.4bn after October's under-recovery). 80% range R29.84–R33.34; probability of an increase 84%. The range narrows as the month's data comes in. Official announcement expected around 30 October 2026.

How it works: the Basic Fuel Price in the pump price is reset each month to the average of CEF's daily Basic Fuel Price over the review window (roughly the previous four weeks). When the daily figure runs above the one in the pump price, the fund under-recovers and the next adjustment is an increase. The orange line is the running average, the best single guide to the next BFP.

The price, piece by piece, since 2017

Basic Fuel Price swings with oil and the rand; taxes and margins climb steadily. Note the 2022 fuel-levy relief, the 2026 relief (April to June), and the slate levy that appears after each oil spike to repay the under-recoveries.

What moves the price

Rules of thumb at today's levels, once a change has fed through a full review window.

Where the price would settle if Brent and the rand held at these levels (refining margin at its recent $47/bbl, and today's freight, levies, margins and slate levy). The outlined cell is nearest to today's market; shading shows how far each is from today's R30.25.

How accurate is this?

Every month from 2019 to 2026, the model was re-run using only the information available at that time, and its forecasts were compared with what actually happened. Its errors are smaller than assuming "no change" at 11 of 12 horizons (by 0.26 R/L one month ahead), and its 80% ranges contained the actual price 83%–92% of the time.

The next adjustment gets much more predictable as the review window fills in. With CEF's daily data (2024–2026), the forecast made 18 trading days into the window missed by R0.26 on average in months without policy surprises. The 3 months with surprises (the 2026 fuel-levy relief and its phase-out) cannot be forecast from market data.